Financial Performance and Market Value of Shares in Financial Sector Companies Amid Economic Uncertainty, 2021–2025

Tia Khoerunnisa; Nunung Nurhasanah; Liya Megawati

doi:10.32535/ijafap.v9i3.4720

Financial Performance and Market Value of Shares in Financial Sector Companies Amid Economic Uncertainty, 2021–2025

Tia Khoerunnisa, Nunung Nurhasanah, Liya Megawati

Abstract

Economic uncertainty during the VUCA era has made stock price formation more complex, increasing the relevance of financial performance and macroeconomic conditions for investors. This study analyzes the effects of Return on Equity (ROE), Earnings Per Share (EPS), and Debt-to-Equity Ratio (DER) on stock prices, while assessing inflation and interest rates as moderators in Indonesian financial sector companies from 2021 to 2025. A quantitative method was applied through panel data regression and Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) using a Random Effects Model (REM), with 500 observations. The findings reveal that ROE has a positive and significant effect (? = 0.019; p < 0.001), whereas EPS is not significant (? = 0.000; p = 0.162). DER also has a positive and significant effect (? = 0.059; p = 0.019). Inflation is insignificant in the main model (? = 0.034; p = 0.057), while interest rates show a significant negative effect (? = ?0.086; p = 0.001). The MRA further shows that neither inflation nor interest rates significantly moderate the relationships between ROE, EPS, DER, and stock prices. Overall, the findings indicate that firm-level financial performance, particularly ROE and DER, remains relevant in explaining stock prices, while macroeconomic variables do not significantly alter these relationships.

Keywords

Return on Equity; Earnings Per Share; Debt-to-Equity Ratio; Stock Price; Interest Rate; Inflation; VUCA

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.32535/ijafap.v9i3.4720