Daily Forecasting for Antam's Certified Gold Bullion Prices in 2018-2020 using Polynomial Regression and Double Exponential Smoothing

Tresna Maulana Fahrudin, Prismahardi Aji Riyantoko, Kartika Maulida Hindrayani, I Gede Susrama Mas Diyasa

Abstract


Gold investment is currently a trend in society, especially the millennial generation. Gold investment for the younger generation is an advantage for the future. Gold bullion is often used as a promising investment, on other hand, the digital gold is available which it is stored online on the gold trading platform. However, any investment certainly has risks, and the price of gold bullion fluctuates from day to day. People who invest in gold hopes to benefit from the initial purchase price even if they must wait up to five years. The problem is how they can notice the best time to sell and buy gold. Therefore, this research proposes a forecasting approach based on time series data and the selling of gold bullion prices per gram in Indonesia. The experiment reported that Holt’s double exponential smoothing provided better forecasting performance than polynomial regression. Holt’s double exponential smoothing reached the minimum of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 0.056% in the training set, 0.047% in one-step testing, and 0.898% in multi-step testing.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.32535/jicp.v3i4.1009

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